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[FIX] HINT not producing coherent forecasts #964

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merged 6 commits into from
Apr 10, 2024

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elephaint
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@elephaint elephaint commented Apr 10, 2024

In HINT, when we make predictions, we compute quantiles of the forecasts and subsequently calculate the mean using those quantiles. This gives an approximation error of the mean of the forecasts, leading a.o. to issue #945 but also showing the 'percentage difference' errors sometimes in our test runs with HINT.

The fix is simple: calculate the mean of the forecasts before computing the quantiles.

Summary:

  • Fixes HINT outputs not Coherent #945
  • Unit test modified in HINT.ipynb that fails without the fix.
  • Note that this also fixes generically the small eps in our tests that we observed when using HINT.

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@elephaint elephaint requested a review from cchallu April 10, 2024 09:43
@elephaint elephaint enabled auto-merge (squash) April 10, 2024 12:42
@jmoralez jmoralez added the fix label Apr 10, 2024
@jmoralez jmoralez disabled auto-merge April 10, 2024 21:37
@jmoralez jmoralez merged commit 4435b12 into Nixtla:main Apr 10, 2024
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@elephaint elephaint deleted the 945-hint-outputs-not-coherent branch April 11, 2024 12:12
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HINT outputs not Coherent
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